I came across a great article in The New Yorker discussing how experts are no better, and sometimes worse, than "regular" people at predicting future political and economic events. While not part of the main theme of the review, I found the small blurb below particularly interesting to those of you who must convert prospects to customers:
Plausible detail makes us believers. When subjects were given a choice between an insurance policy that covered hospitalization for any reason and a policy that covered hospitalization for all accidents and diseases, they were willing to pay a higher premium for the second policy, because the added detail gave them a more vivid picture of the circumstances in which it might be needed. In 1982, an experiment was done with professional forecasters and planners. One group was asked to assess the probability of “a complete suspension of diplomatic relations between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, sometime in 1983,” and another group was asked to assess the probability of “a Russian invasion of Poland, and a complete suspension of diplomatic relations between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, sometime in 1983.” The experts judged the second scenario more likely than the first, even though it required two separate events to occur. They were seduced by the detail.
When writing marketing copy or creating a sales pitch, then, don't be afraid to include the details. For instance, if you were able to save a previous customer $1,032, use that detailed number. Don't change it to "over $1,000." Details, especially when written down, give you more credibility - so use them!
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